天博体育平台

饲料需求预期向好 玉米后市易涨难跌
发布日期: 2019-09-08 浏览次数: 字号: [ ]

2020nianlinchuyumipaimaizi5yue28rikaishi,chengjiaolvlianxu13pai100%,shichangxingqinghuobao。jiezhi9yue,linchuyumijiangquanbupaiwan,jibenwanchengqukushiming。suizheguochuzhujianqukucun,zhangyuanlaikan,gongyingyalijiangyouxiaohuanjie。

进口和替代隐忧仍存

2020nianguoneiyumijinkoupeiewei720wandun,muqiannongyenongcunbuyugu2019/2020niandujinkouliangwei500wandun。genjuzhongmeidiyijieduanxieyi,zhongfangchengnuojiangyujinniancaigou365yidunmeiguonongchanpin,muqianrengyoujiaodachaju,danjinqizhongmeiguanxipushuomili,weilaibuquedingxingrengda。congjiexialaisanzhoudechuanqilaikan,guangdonggangjinkougaoliang、damaiyijiyumidedaogangshuliangjiaoqianqidafuzengjia,yineryujijieduanxinggongyingrengquyukuansong。

饲料需求预期向好

siliaochanliangchuxianhuifuxingzengzhang。shoushengzhuyangzhilirunfenghou、guojiaqianglibutiedengyinsuyingxiang,shengzhuyangzhiqiyetebieshidadejituanqiyejiadatouru,jiadabulanlidu,cijishengzhu、nengfanmuzhucunlanjixuzengzhang,jinerladongsiliaoxuqiuzengzhang。7yueshengzhucunlanjimuzhucunlanjunchuyuzengzhangshizhong,qizhong,muzhucunlanyijinglianxu11geyuezengzhang。lingwai,qianjieduandebulanzizhu,suizhetizhongdezengjia,duisiyongxuqiuyezaizengzhang。

天博体育平台erdanjiyangzhifangmian,cunlanjixuhuifu,youyu2019nianyangzhiyinglifenghou,yangzhidanweibulanjijixinggaozhang,quniansijidubulandejimiaojunyijinruchandangaofengqi,muqianchanqugaofengqidanjicunlanliangzhanbijiaogao,zhongxiaomajidangongyingchongzu,suizhedanzhongzhujianshangzhang,houqichanlianghuorengweichizaijiaogaoshuiping。yujihouqiyumidesiliaoxiaofeixiangbishangnianjiangyoumingxianhaozhuan,tongbiyijiangyoujiaohaodezengsu。

深加工企业开工正常

qianqiyumidianfenqiyeqiandanshangke,bufenrengzaiyizhixinghetongweizhu,xiayouzhengticaigouxiangduijinshen,zhengtiqiandanliangjianruo。kucunchengjijiexingxiahuataishi,yumidianfengaojiayizhichukou,chanduimianfendengxuqiu,yujiyumidianfenhoushijiagejiangzhubuxiadie。

天博体育平台zhengtilaikan,jinnianyilai,yumijiagezouqiangyushichangpianjinyuqiguanxijinmi,anzhaomeiguonongyebuyuji,woguo2016、2017、2018、2019niandeyumiqimokucunxiaofeibifenbiewei0.87、0.84、0.76he0.71,kucunjiangdiqushiyijingxingcheng。congguochushengyucunliangkan,kucunjiangdidetaishiyeshiruci。ersuizhehouqiguochujixupaochu,guochuliangjihusuoshengwuji,houqijiangshiyumijiagebodongjiaju。

jinnianheilongjiangyumizhongzhimianjiyujixiajiangfuduzai10%—15%,qitadiqubaochibubian,yumizongmianjidiaojian,danshijinniandanchanjiaohao,yujijinnianchanliangbiqunianxiaofujianshao。lingwai,congjinnianshengzhu、nengfanmuzhucunlanhuanbizengzhangtaishihegedituichudeyangzhicijijihuakan,weilaiwoguoshengzhuheqitachuqinyongsiliaoxuqiujianghuichengxianhuifuxingzengzhang,daobiyumigongyingyuqipianjin。dianfen、jiujing、anjisuandengchanpinxuqiuzaiduozhongyinsujiaohuyingxiangxia,youzengyoujian,duiyumijiagedeshanglaqudonggongxianyouxian。

总体而言,预计短期内玉米走势将受陈粮出库、政策性粮源持续投放、新粮陆续上市以及进口替代品集中到货等因素冲击,但中长期来看,玉米价格仍将表现坚挺,下方成本支撑较强。操作策略上,逢回调可以继续布局多单。(来源:天博体育平台-首页




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